Despite contributing minimally to global emissions, Afghanistan faces escalating economic and social crises from climate change. Climate shocks, such as from floods, droughts, landslides, avalanches and extreme temperature events, cause annual economic losses estimated between USD 550 million in a year where precipitation is ‘normal’ and USD three billion in a drought year – equivalent to between almost 3.2 per cent and more than 18 per cent of GDP. Yet, the country has not received the adaptation funds promised to the poorest countries, leaving it increasingly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. AAN’s guest author, Mohammad Assem Mayar,* has calculated the economic toll of climate change on Afghanistan, putting figures to the harm being done. This is a necessary step, he says. There are ways that climate funds could be given – despite the Islamic Emirate not being recognised – and the need for those funds to bolster Afghanistan’s resilience in the face of climate change is urgent.
Women and children brace themselves as they walk through a sandstorm in Kabul, Afghanistan.
Photo: Ted Aljibe/AFP, 17 July 2011
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Climate change is threatening Afghanistan’s already fragile economy, with both rapid onset disasters, such as floods, and slow onset ones, such as droughts, causing far-reaching harm. The resulting decline in agricultural productivity due to frequent droughts exacerbates food insecurity, rural poverty and displacement. The country’s water resources, heavily reliant on seasonal snowmelt, are increasingly threatened by reduced glacier coverage and erratic precipitation. The decline in water availability not only disrupts agricultural productivity but also jeopardises urban water supplies and hydropower generation. Furthermore, the interconnected nature of Afghanistan’s economy means climate-induced shocks ripple across multiple sectors. Transport networks, energy systems and public services such as health and education are all affected, creating cascading challenges that deepen economic and social vulnerabilities.
These climate-induced challenges exacerbate food insecurity, drive displacement, strain health and education systems and intensify gender-based violence, particularly in vulnerable rural communities. The situation is further compounded by Afghanistan’s political situation. The non-recognition of the Emirate has left the country with only extremely limited access to international climate adaptation funds, forcing it to rely on limited humanitarian aid, which is largely reactive rather than preventive. While efforts by UN agencies and international organisations to implement climate projects offer some relief, the lack of long-term, structured financing leaves Afghanistan unprepared for worsening climate impacts.
This report examines the major economic consequences of climate change on Afghanistan, comparing these losses with the country’s financial capabilities, evaluating the potential of climate adaptation measures to mitigate future risks and highlighting the urgency of investing in climate resilience to safeguard Afghanistan’s economic future.
* Dr Mohammad Assem Mayar is a water resources management and climate change expert and former lecturer at Kabul Polytechnic University in Afghanistan. He is currently an independent researcher based in Germany. He posts on X as @assemmayar1.
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Edited by Kate Clark and Roxanna Shapour
Revisions:
This article was last updated on 22 Mar 2025
Tags:
climate change
climate resilience
food insecurity
