Afghanistan Analysts Network – English

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Thomas Barfield on Afghanistan’s current situation

< 1 min

Afghan Hindsight, 17 November 2023

A summary by Tim Foxley, of Afghan Hindsight blog, of Thomas Barfield’s presentation and discussion organised by UK-based Conservative Friends of Afghanistan.

His two key points to highlight from it:

  • Afghanistan will seem stable – until it suddenly isn’t. Afghanistan always finds a way to suddenly surprise the world – ignore Afghanistan at your peril.
  • If there is to be a new revolution/uprising/insurgency, it may look a lot more like the Arab Spring, focusing on protests and unrest in the cities, than guerrilla war in the mountains of Badakhshan… 

Barfield also cautioned that it is very hard to know the inner workings and thinking of the Taliban so his comments should be seen as speculation only.