Afghanistan Analysts Network – English

Borhan Osman

Kabul’s Kart-e Sakhi shrine where two attackers wearing police uniforms and equipped with grenades and machine guns opened fire on Ashura mourners on 11 October 2016. Photo: Tolo

With an Active Cell in Kabul, ISKP Tries to Bring Sectarianism to the Afghan War

Borhan Osman •

With its publically claimed attack on Afghan Shia mourners in Kabul on the eve of Ashura, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) was clearly attempting to add a toxic sectarianism to the Afghan conflict. The attack, which killed 19 people, followed two other ISKP attacks, on a political demonstration by (largely Shia) Hazaras in July […]

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President Ashraf Ghani, flanked by senior Afghan officials and politicians, signs the peace agreement with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of the Hizb-e-Islami party, who earlier spoke to the gathering (and signed the agreement) by video link. Photo: Tolo News

Peace With Hekmatyar: What does it mean for battlefield and politics?

Borhan Osman •

The peace deal signed today by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of Hezb-e Islami, and President Ashraf Ghani, has been hailed by the Afghan government as the first major peace achievement of the last fifteen years. However, expectations should be tempered. Given Hezb-e Islami’s almost total absence on the battlefield, the deal is unlikely to significantly lower […]

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Screenshot from a video of a ISKP training in Nangarhar published in 2015

Descent into chaos: Why did Nangarhar turn into an IS hub?

Borhan Osman •

Armed groups pledging allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) have tried to establish a foothold in five of Afghanistan’s provinces, but only in Nangarhar have they succeeded. There, IS Khorasan Province (ISKP), the Afghanistan-Pakistan franchise of the Islamic State, landed on fertile ground with a fragmented insurgency, bickering provincial elites, a tradition of Salafi networks […]

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The complex attack on the American University of Afghanistan (AUAF) in Kabul started around 7 pm on 24 August 2016 with an explosion followed by armed assailants storming the campus. (Photo Source: Tolonews)

The Attack on the American University in Kabul (2): Who did it and why?

Borhan Osman •

The attack on the American University in Kabul on 24 August 2016 was unprecedented in many respects. For the first time, a ‘complex attack’ – often reserved for high-profile and well-guarded targets – hit an educational institution. It also came in the wake of an ideological campaign by circles in the Taleban movement that had […]

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The Islamic State in ‘Khorasan’: How it began and where it stands now in Nangarhar

Borhan Osman •

The Islamic State’s local franchise in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP), has claimed responsibility for the suicide attack on the TUTAP protests in Kabul on 23 July 2016. The attack killed more than 80 people and injured over 230 others in Deh Mazang Square in western Kabul. The target of […]

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Taleban propaganda films (with scenes such as the above of a gathering of fighters in Kunduz province pledging allegiance to Akhtar Mansur in August 2015) can been seen as evidence of how much the Taleban's decision-making mechanism, its organisational structure and communication strategies have evolved over the past two decades of its existence. (Photo Source: Taleban Propaganda Website 2015)

Taleban in Transition 2: Who is in charge now?

Borhan Osman •

The new Taleban leader, Mullah Haibatullah, is being closely scrutinised to see if he will try to shape the goals and methods of the insurgency. The question is not just whether he wants to, but if he can. Gone are the days when the amir of the Taleban, by mere virtue of his position, had […]

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Photograph of the newly appointed Taleban leader Haibatullah, which circulated on social media within hours of the announcement - previous Taleban leaders were always careful to avoid having an up-to-date picture of them in the media (Photo Source: Islamic Emirates' social media post)

Taleban in Transition: How Mansur’s death and Haibatullah’s ascension may affect the war (and peace)

Borhan Osman •

The killing of Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansur in an American drone strike has deprived the Taleban of their official, and before that, de facto leader of six years. Mansur had shaped the movement profoundly – leaving it stronger militarily, but with more internal dissension. His successor, Mullah Haibatullah, is an austere, pious man with higher religious […]

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Screenshot of the Taleban's spring offensive announcement 2016 on their English language website

Operation Omari: Taleban Announced 2016 Spring Offensive

AAN Team • Borhan Osman •

The Taleban made their yearly spring offensive announcement on 12 April 2016. The statement attributed to Taleban leadership council (Rahbari Shura) named the offensive “Operation Omari,” in honour of the movement’s late leader and provides clues with regard to both the Taleban’s plans and the way they wish to present themselves. Of particular note are the […]

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Toward Fragmentation? Mapping the post-Omar Taleban

Borhan Osman •

The Taleban movement has entered its third decade with infighting threatening its – up till now ­– remarkable unity. The killing of Mansur Dadullah during clashes between Taleban factions in Zabul on 12 November 2015 highlighted the scope of this unprecedented discord. Dadullah had been deputy leader of a newly-formed, breakaway faction of the Taleban. […]

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The Fall of Kunduz: What does it tell us about the strength of the post-Omar Taleban?

Borhan Osman •

The capture of Kunduz by the Taleban has surely written off any idea of the movement having been seriously undermined or fractured by the death of Mullah Omar and the leadership dispute that followed. His successor, Akhtar Mansur may still face some resistance from dissidents within the movement, but on the battlefield, the Taleban under […]

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Kabul newspaper frontpage, showing three main protagonists of the latest Taleban saga (from l. to r.; Mansur Dadullah; Rahmani, allegedly Omar).

The Murree Process: Divisive peace talks further complicated by Mullah Omar’s death

Borhan Osman •

News of Mullah Omar’s death was leaked just a day before a second meeting between Taleban and Afghan government representatives was supposed to have taken place. The first meeting on 7 July near Islamabad, in Murree, initiated the so-called Murree Process. The revelation of Mullah Omar’s death and subsequent struggle for succession in the Taleban […]

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Beyond Jihad and Traditionalism: Afghanistan’s new generation of Islamic activists

Borhan Osman •

Not all Afghan youth who are politically active and who want to change the status quo fit into the often simplified categories of being either progressive and educated, or uneducated and subversive. There is an often-overlooked segment of Afghanistan’s youth that is educated and engages in modern political debates and activities, while at the same […]

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