Afghanistan Analysts Network – English


29 August 2011: New Afghan scenario paper with AAN’s Thomas Ruttig as co-author published

AAN admin < 1 min

AAN’s Thomas Ruttig and Citha D. Maaß of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) in Berlin have co-authored a paper that describes possible scenarios during and after the transition process ‘Afghanistan vor neuem Bürgerkrieg?’ (Afghanistan facing a new civil war?). The paper has been uploaded at the SWP website today in English, the original German version can also be found there.

In July 2011, the transition of security responsibility to the Afghan government has begun. While NATO states accompany this process with calculated optimism, the authors write, four rather negative scenarios are looming: continuation of the rule of a ‚power oligarchy’ in the current composition (option 1) or with political participation oft he Taleban (option 2). The descent into another civil war after 2014, the expected end date of the ISAF mandate, is also possible (option 3) or the re-establishment oft he Taleban Emirate (option 4). Which scenario will materialise, depends on a number of factors: internal Afghan risks, the future ISAF strategy in the asymetrical war and the form of a long-term US engagement in Afghanistan. The authors are pessimistic about realistic external and internal conditions for a more positive scenario, an end of the conflict and better governance.

Citha D. Maaß, Thomas Ruttig
Is Afghanistan on the Brink of a New Civil War?
Possible Scenarios and Influencing Factors in the Transition Process
SWP Comments 2011/C 21, August 2011, 4 Pages

Find the abstract (in HTML) here.

The complete text (in PDF) can be downloaded here.

The original German version can be found as follows:

Citha D. Maaß / Thomas Ruttig: Afghanistan vor neuem Bürgerkrieg? Entwicklungsoptionen und Einflussfaktoren im Transitionsprozess, SWP-Aktuell 2011/A 40, August 2011, 4 p. (in German)

Find a short version in HTML format here and the full report in PDF here.


Germany NATO Reports Thomas Ruttig