Afghanistan Analysts Network – English


20 January 2012: Two new non-AAN papers by Thomas Ruttig

AAN admin 2 min

Two new papers by AAN’s Thomas Ruttig have been published, one contributed to a conference organised by the Aspen Institute and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in Berlin this January and a contribution for the journal of the National Defence Institute of Portugal.

Thomas Ruttig, ‘Afghanistan between Democratization and Civil War: Post-2014 Scenarios’,
in: Charles King Mallory IV/Joachim Krause (eds.), Sustainable Strategies for Afghanistan and the Region After 2014, Aspen Institute, European Strategy Forum, reader for a conference, 10-11 January 2012, Berlin, pp 149-62. Available online here.

This conference contribution draws on an earlier papers co-authored with Citha D. Maaß for Berlin’s SWP in August 2011 (in German) and AAN’s December 2011 discussion paper for the Bonn 2 conference ‘The International Community’s Engagement in Afghanistan beyond 2014’. This new publication discusses post-2014 scenarios for Afghanistan, but also extensively looks at the causes, context of and determining factors for Afghanistan’s current conflicts, going back even before the Soviet invasion of 1978. It includes the discussion around US bases, talks with the Taleban and the inteqal strategy. Finally it asks ‘Why no best-case scenario?’ The reader also contains papers by Christine Fair, Keith Crane, James Dobbins, Anthony Cordesman, Sumit Ganguly and Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh.

Thomas Ruttig, ‘Is the Afghan Peace Process Really in Shambles?’, in: IDN Nação e Defesa (Lisbon), no 130 (2011), pp 31-54. Not online yet, check the journal’s website here.

In this article written in fall 2011, AAN’s Thomas Ruttig looks at the repercussions of the killing of Afghan HPC chairman Burhanuddin Rabbani and warns to interpret the assassination (the background of which has remained unclear) as a ‘no’ of the Taleban to peace talks. He further looks at the following questions: How effective was the HPC so far? What do the Taleban want politically? What do the US want? Finally, he makes a few suggestions how to drive possible talks towards an inclusive peace process.