This year’s ‘political transition’ is hugely important: if all goes well, Afghanistan will see a new leader and a rare example in its history of a change of government not involving death, coup or conquest. If it goes badly, there will be consequences for the country’s stability. For many of those at the Afghanistan Analysts Network, the 2014 poll is the fifth Afghan election they have followed closely. For AAN as an institution it is our third. So far, it has thrown up familiar patterns as well as unexpected new dynamics. Not everything that happens is immediately easy to read, so we wanted to group together information and insights that we sort into six groups, in an easy-to-find format.
1. ‘Explainers’ around electoral agreement, normal audit, special audit and provincial council election and audit
This category contains all our reporting on the struggle to find out who won the 2014 presidential election by way of conducting a ‘normal’ audit and a ‘special’ one. We also look at the parallel process of brokering an electoral agreement between the two candidates (and its result, the swearing in of Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai as new Afghan president on 30 September) and deliver updates on how the widely ignored provincial council election and its audit are going on.
2. ‘Explainers’ after the second round of voting
Here, we look at what announcements on partial results, fraud, violence etc actually tell us. After the surprisingly high voter turnout in the first round, we in particular try to ascertain what the second round was like in this regard. We analyse the different ethnic groups’ voting patterns, and we watch the two contenders and their after-the-vote-politicking as well as, of course, the big audit of the run-off.
3. ‘Explainers’ before the second round of voting
Here, we summarise who is with whom and who is against whom before the second round of voting – also how the campaigning is going, how IEC and IECC are preparing for the next round (still dealing with the last one at the same time) and what to look out for on and after election day.
4. ‘Explainers’ after the first round of voting
Here, we look at what announcements on partial results, fraud, violence etc actually tell us. We try to make sense of the various, tricky statistics which are (or are not) published, explain technical aspects of the law and look for patterns in voting and fraud.
5. The election experience around Afghanistan
As always, how the elections go varies hugely from place to place. So we are also grouping together AAN dispatches which give detailed, nuanced reports of the widely varying experiences of voters, campaigners and officials in different provinces.
6. Pre-election ‘explainers’
We have also gathered dispatches and reports published before the election which explain what to look out for in the registration, the vote, the count, complaints, fraud and the results. In this section, we include dispatches on the major pre-election events and themes: negotiating the presidential tickets, vetting the candidates, forming the two election commissions, General Dostum’s ‘apology’ and the attitude of other candidates to allegations of war crimes and the position of radical youth towards democracy. There are also several major AAN reports looking into previous elections – included here to make comparing the polls easier.
1. ‘Explainers’ around electoral agreement, normal audit, special audit and provincial council election and audit
Elections 2014 (54): Provincial council results creaking under the weight of manipulation
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 29 October 2014
Elections 2014 (53): Ghani sworn in as Afghanistan’s new president
Author: Kate Clark Date: 30 September 2014
Elections 2014 (52): The not yet officially announced results – electoral maths with unknowns
Author: Thomas Ruttig Date: 28 September 2014
Elections 2014 (51): Finally, a deal, but not yet democracy
Author: Kate Clark Date: 21 September 2014
Elections (50): Experience with ‘governments of national unity’ elsewhere
Author: Thomas Ruttig Date: 16 September 2014
Afghanistan Elections 2014 (49): Still deadlock, make or break
Author: Kate Clark Date: 14 September 2014
Elections 2014 (48): Key documents underwriting the electoral audit
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 11 September 2014
Elections 2014 (47): Audit enters its final precarious phase
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 4 September 2014
Elections 2014 (46): Déjà vu – Abdullah pulls out, process continues
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 30 August 2014
Elections 2014 (45): Solving audit problems by creating new ones
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 19 August 2014
Elections 2014 (44): Key documents underwriting the electoral agreement
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 13 August 2014
2014 Elections (43): The second installment of a Kerry-brokered agreement
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 9 August 2014
2014 Elections (42): Audit stopped, re-started, UN intervenes
Author: Kate Clark and Qayoom Suroush Date: 25 July 2014
Elections 2014 (41): Audit started, rules as yet unclear
Author: Kate Clark and Qayoom Suroush Date: 17 July 2014
Elections 2014 (35): A delay, an audit and a change of tone
Author: Martine van Bijlert and Kate Clark Date: 3 July 2014
2. ‘Explainers’ after the second round of voting
Elections (40): The IECC open sessions on the Election Day complaints
Author: Qayoom Suroush Date: 17 July
Elections 2014 (39): Has Kerry saved the day?
Author: Kate Clark Date: 14 July 2014
Elections 2014 (38): Candidate positioning after the preliminary results
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 9 July 2014
Elections 2014 (37): Preliminary results before agreement on auditing
Author: Kate Clark Date: 8 July 2014
Elections 2014 (36): Some key documents
Author: AAN Team Date: 8 July 2014
Elections (34): The tug-of-war over the Hazara vote, round II
Author: Qayoom Suroush Date: 26 June 2014
Elections 2014 (33): ‘Amarkhel Gate’ – sheep, tape, resignation
Author: Kate Clark Date: 24 June 2014
Elections 2014 (32): A second round surge in turnout in Loya Paktia?
Author: Pakteen Ibrahimi and Kate Clark Date: 20 June 2014
Elections (31): Afghanistan’s confusing election maths
Author: Thomas Ruttig Date: 19 June 2014
Elections 2014 (30): Some initial reflections on E-Day II
Author: Thomas Ruttig Date: 15 June 2014
3. ‘Explainers’ before the second round of voting
Elections (28): Last minute procedural changes to pacify candidate complaints
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 13 June 2014
Elections 2014 (26): The other possible vice president – Dr Abdullah’s running mate Muhammad Khan
Author: Kate Clark Date: 12 June 2014
Elections 2014 (25): Election mobilisation of women in the Pashtun southeast
Author: Thomas Ruttig and Pakteen Ibrahimi Date: 12 June 2014
Election 2014 (23): Deals and insults in Afghanistan’s second round campaign
Author: AAN Team Date: 9 June 2014
4. ‘Explainers’ after the first round voting
Elections 2014 (24): The IECC’s performance addressing provincial council complaints
Author: Qayoom Suroush and Martine van Bijlert Date: 9 June 2014
Elections 2014 (22): How disenchantment with General Dostum split the Uzbek vote bank
Author: Obaid Ali and Thomas Ruttig Date: 22 May 2014
2014 Elections (21): A closer look at the IECC’s performance and the challenges it faced
Author: Qayoom Suroush Date: 19 May 2014
2014 Elections (20): The Ashraf Ghani interview
Author: Kate Clark Date: 18 May 2014
Elections 2014 (19): Final results’ timeline trumps transparency
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 16 May
2014 Elections (18): The Abdullah interview
Author: Kate Clark Date: 11 May 2014
Elections 2014 (17): Journalists argue over neutrality, patriotism and the E-Day blackout
Author: Kate Clark Date: 30 April 2014
Elections 2014 (16): Final preliminary results, complaints, campaigns and negotiations
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 28 April 2014
Elections 2014 (13): The IEC and IECC’s reluctance to be transparent
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 22 April 2014
Elections 2014 (12): The Taleban rant and take a harder line on peace
Author: Borhan Osman Date: 21 April 2014
Elections 2014 (9): Making sense of the first ten per cent of the results
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 13 April 2014
Elections 2014 (7): An emerging mixed picture
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 9 April 2014
5. The election experience around Afghanistan
Elections 2014 (29): The second round election day in snapshots from the provinces
Author: AAN Team Date: 14 June 2014
Elections 2014 (27): Snapshots from the provinces before the second round vote
Author: AAN Team Date: 13 June 2014
Elections 2014 (17): Journalists argue over neutrality, patriotism and E-Day blackout
Author: Kate Clark Date: 30 April 2014
Elections 2014 (15): Hazaras overturning all expectations
Author: Qayoom Suroush Date: 24 April 2014
Elections 2014 (14): Why two thirds of Andar’s polling centres may have never opened
Author: Fazal Rahman Date: 23 April 2014
Elections 2014 (11): How the Hazaras voted in Bamyan
Author: Qayoom Suroush Date: 16 April 2014
Elections 2014 (10): Paktia – where rain helped the ‘king making’ voters
Author: Pakteen Ibrahimi Date: 14 April 2014
Elections 2014 (8): Kandahar, a centre-districts divide and the weakening of the tribal factor
Author: Borhan Osman Date: 11 April 2014
Elections 2014 (6): Two types of security in the Shomali
Author: Fabrizio Foschini Date: 7 April 2014
Elections 2014 (5): Inky Fingers and Wet Feet – Polling Day
Authors: Martine van Bijlert and Kate Clark Date: 5 April 2014
Elections 2014 (4): The election day in snapshots from the provinces
Author: AAN Team Date: 5 April 2014
Election 2014 (3): Snapshots from the provinces before the vote
Author: AAN Team Date: 5 April 2014
Elections 2014 (1): Impressions from Kunduz at the eve of the elections
Author: AAN Team Date: 4 April 2014
Dividing the Field: Who shapes the electoral landscape in a Herat township – and how?
Author: S Reza Kazemi Date: 17 March 2014
Money, Jobs and Mutton Soup: Pre-election discourses in a Herat township
Author: S Reza Kazemi Date: 3 February 2014
6. Pre-election ‘explainers’
What to Watch in the Elections (1): Voter registration
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 1 April 2014
What to Watch in the Elections (2): Polling station lists
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 1 April 2014
What to Watch in the Elections (3): Polling day, fraud and irregularities
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 1 April 2014
What to Watch in the Elections (4): The count, the complaints and the result
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 1 April 2014
The final list of presidential and vice-presidential candidates
Author: Thomas Ruttig Date: 9 February 2014
Under Fire: The status of the 2014 election observation
By: Thomas Ruttig, 5 April 2014
Election 2014 (2): The polling centres that were taken off the list
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 4 April 2014
What the Polls Tell Us About the Afghan Presidential Election
Author: Matthieu Aikins Date: 31 March 2014
Not a Promising Start: The vetting of the presidential and provincial council candidates
Author: Kate Clark and Gran Hewad Date: 22 December 2013
Afghan Youth for Democracy? Not all of them
Author: Borhan Osman Date: 2 April 2014
Elections and Foreigners: An analysis of recent Taleban violence
Author: Kate Clark Date: 3 April 2014
The Butter on the Bread: The Provincial Councils’ fight for extended authority
Author: Thomas Ruttig and Ehsan Qaane Date: 23 March 2014
‘Pen’ Joins ‘Radio’: Qayyum Karzai gives his support to Zalmai Rassul
Author: Thomas Ruttig and Kate Clark Date: 7 March 2014
A Joint ‘Durrani’ Candidate for President? After the Unity Jirga in Kabul
Author: Thomas Ruttig Date: 5 March 2014
Bomb and Ballot: The many strands and tactics of Hezb-e Islami
Author: Thomas Ruttig Date: 19 February 2014
Rallies, Debate, Rain and Snow: The 2014 presidential election campaign starts
Author: Kate Clark Date: 2 February 2014
Candidates on Camera: Interviewing the next president of Afghanistan
Author: Kate Clark Date: 12 December 2013
And Then They Were Ten: Preliminary final list of presidential candidates out
Author: Kate Clark Date: 22 October 2013
A Leader Apologises: General Dostum, elections and war crimes
Author: Kate Clark Date: 8 October 2013
The Last Minute Frenzy of Afghanistan’s Candidate Registration
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 6 October 2013
Dancing to Power: Getting an Afghan presidential ticket together
Author: Kate Clark and Gran Hewad Date: 30 September 2013
First Reactions Negative: The new Electoral Complaints Commission
Author: Gran Hewad Date: 18 September 2013
On Your Marks! Alliances and actors before the 2014 presidential election
Author: Thomas Ruttig Date: 17 September 2013
A Hasty Process: New Independent Election Commission announced
Author: Gran Hewad, Martine van Bijlert and Thomas Ruttig Date: 30 July 2013
Afghanistan’s New Electoral Laws: Changes and red flags
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 27 July 2013
See also four major AAN reports and a thematic dossier pulling together insight and information on previous elections
How to Win an Afghan Election, Perceptions and Practices
Martine van Bijlert, 11 August 2009
Polling Day Fraud in the Afghan Elections
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 8 September 2009
Who Controls the Vote? Afghanistan’s Evolving Elections
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 15 September 2010
Untangling Afghanistan’s 2010 Vote: Analysing the electoral data
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 19 Febriary 2011
Thematic Dossier III: What Past Elections Teach Us
Pulled together reports and dispatches from previous elections
Author: Martine van Bijlert Date: 5 October 2013
Revisions:
This article was last updated on 9 Mar 2020
Tags:
Dossier
Elections
provincial council
