Afghanistan Analysts Network – English

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Thematic Dossier IV: Afghanistan’s 2014 Presidential and Provincial Council Elections

AAN Team 8 min

This year’s ‘political transition’ is hugely important: if all goes well, Afghanistan will see a new leader and a rare example in its history of a change of government not involving death, coup or conquest. If it goes badly, there will be consequences for the country’s stability. For many of those at the Afghanistan Analysts Network, the 2014 poll is the fifth Afghan election they have followed closely. For AAN as an institution it is our third. So far, it has thrown up familiar patterns as well as unexpected new dynamics. Not everything that happens is immediately easy to read, so we wanted to group together information and insights that we sort into six groups, in an easy-to-find format.

1. ‘Explainers’ around electoral agreement, normal audit, special audit and provincial council election and audit

This category contains all our reporting on the struggle to find out who won the 2014 presidential election by way of conducting a ‘normal’ audit and a ‘special’ one. We also look at the parallel process of brokering an electoral agreement between the two candidates (and its result, the swearing in of Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai as new Afghan president on 30 September) and deliver updates on how the widely ignored provincial council election and its audit are going on.

2. ‘Explainers’ after the second round of voting

Here, we look at what announcements on partial results, fraud, violence etc actually tell us. After the surprisingly high voter turnout in the first round, we in particular try to ascertain what the second round was like in this regard. We analyse the different ethnic groups’ voting patterns, and we watch the two contenders and their after-the-vote-politicking as well as, of course, the big audit of the run-off.

3. ‘Explainers’ before the second round of voting

Here, we summarise who is with whom and who is against whom before the second round of voting – also how the campaigning is going, how IEC and IECC are preparing for the next round (still dealing with the last one at the same time) and what to look out for on and after election day.

4. Explainers’ after the first round of voting

Here, we look at what announcements on partial results, fraud, violence etc actually tell us. We try to make sense of the various, tricky statistics which are (or are not) published, explain technical aspects of the law and look for patterns in voting and fraud.

5. The election experience around Afghanistan

As always, how the elections go varies hugely from place to place. So we are also grouping together AAN dispatches which give detailed, nuanced reports of the widely varying experiences of voters, campaigners and officials in different provinces.

6. Pre-election ‘explainers’

We have also gathered dispatches and reports published before the election which explain what to look out for in the registration, the vote, the count, complaints, fraud and the results. In this section, we include dispatches on the major pre-election events and themes: negotiating the presidential tickets, vetting the candidates, forming the two election commissions, General Dostum’s ‘apology’ and the attitude of other candidates to allegations of war crimes and the position of radical youth towards democracy. There are also several major AAN reports looking into previous elections – included here to make comparing the polls easier.

 

1. ‘Explainers’ around electoral agreement, normal audit, special audit and provincial council election and audit

Elections 2014 (54): Provincial council results creaking under the weight of manipulation

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 29 October 2014

Elections 2014 (53): Ghani sworn in as Afghanistan’s new president

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 30 September 2014

Elections 2014 (52): The not yet officially announced results – electoral maths with unknowns

Author: Thomas Ruttig    Date: 28 September 2014

Elections 2014 (51): Finally, a deal, but not yet democracy

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 21 September 2014

Elections (50): Experience with ‘governments of national unity’ elsewhere

Author: Thomas Ruttig    Date: 16 September 2014

Afghanistan Elections 2014 (49): Still deadlock, make or break

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 14 September 2014

Elections 2014 (48): Key documents underwriting the electoral audit

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 11 September 2014

Elections 2014 (47): Audit enters its final precarious phase

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 4 September 2014

Elections 2014 (46): Déjà vu – Abdullah pulls out, process continues

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 30 August 2014

Elections 2014 (45): Solving audit problems by creating new ones

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 19 August 2014

Elections 2014 (44): Key documents underwriting the electoral agreement

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 13 August 2014

2014 Elections (43): The second installment of a Kerry-brokered agreement

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 9 August 2014

2014 Elections (42): Audit stopped, re-started, UN intervenes

Author: Kate Clark and Qayoom Suroush    Date: 25 July 2014

Elections 2014 (41): Audit started, rules as yet unclear

Author: Kate Clark and Qayoom Suroush    Date: 17 July 2014

Elections 2014 (35): A delay, an audit and a change of tone

Author: Martine van Bijlert and Kate Clark     Date: 3 July 2014

 

2. ‘Explainers’ after the second round of voting

Elections (40): The IECC open sessions on the Election Day complaints

Author: Qayoom Suroush    Date: 17 July

Elections 2014 (39): Has Kerry saved the day?

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 14 July 2014

Elections 2014 (38): Candidate positioning after the preliminary results

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 9 July 2014

Elections 2014 (37): Preliminary results before agreement on auditing

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 8 July 2014

Elections 2014 (36): Some key documents

Author: AAN Team    Date: 8 July 2014

Elections (34): The tug-of-war over the Hazara vote, round II

Author: Qayoom Suroush    Date: 26 June 2014

Elections 2014 (33): ‘Amarkhel Gate’ – sheep, tape, resignation

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 24 June 2014

Elections 2014 (32): A second round surge in turnout in Loya Paktia?

Author: Pakteen Ibrahimi and Kate Clark    Date: 20 June 2014

Elections (31): Afghanistan’s confusing election maths

Author: Thomas Ruttig    Date: 19 June 2014

Elections 2014 (30): Some initial reflections on E-Day II

Author: Thomas Ruttig    Date: 15 June 2014

 

3. ‘Explainers’ before the second round of voting

Elections (28): Last minute procedural changes to pacify candidate complaints

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 13 June 2014

Elections 2014 (26): The other possible vice president – Dr Abdullah’s running mate Muhammad Khan

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 12 June 2014

Elections 2014 (25): Election mobilisation of women in the Pashtun southeast

Author: Thomas Ruttig and Pakteen Ibrahimi    Date: 12 June 2014

Election 2014 (23): Deals and insults in Afghanistan’s second round campaign

Author: AAN Team    Date: 9 June 2014

 

4. ‘Explainers’ after the first round voting

Elections 2014 (24): The IECC’s performance addressing provincial council complaints

Author: Qayoom Suroush and Martine van Bijlert    Date: 9 June 2014

Elections 2014 (22): How disenchantment with General Dostum split the Uzbek vote bank

Author: Obaid Ali and Thomas Ruttig    Date: 22 May 2014

2014 Elections (21): A closer look at the IECC’s performance and the challenges it faced

Author: Qayoom Suroush    Date: 19 May 2014

2014 Elections (20): The Ashraf Ghani interview

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 18 May 2014

Elections 2014 (19): Final results’ timeline trumps transparency

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 16 May

2014 Elections (18): The Abdullah interview

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 11 May 2014

Elections 2014 (17): Journalists argue over neutrality, patriotism and the E-Day blackout

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 30 April 2014

Elections 2014 (16): Final preliminary results, complaints, campaigns and negotiations

Author: Martine van Bijlert   Date: 28 April 2014

Elections 2014 (13): The IEC and IECC’s reluctance to be transparent

Author: Martine van Bijlert   Date: 22 April 2014

Elections 2014 (12): The Taleban rant and take a harder line on peace

Author: Borhan Osman   Date: 21 April 2014

Elections 2014 (9): Making sense of the first ten per cent of the results

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 13 April 2014

Elections 2014 (7): An emerging mixed picture

Author: Martine van Bijlert     Date: 9 April 2014

 

5. The election experience around Afghanistan

Elections 2014 (29): The second round election day in snapshots from the provinces

Author: AAN Team    Date: 14 June 2014

Elections 2014 (27): Snapshots from the provinces before the second round vote

Author: AAN Team    Date: 13 June 2014

Elections 2014 (17): Journalists argue over neutrality, patriotism and E-Day blackout

Author: Kate Clark   Date: 30 April 2014

Elections 2014 (15): Hazaras overturning all expectations

Author: Qayoom Suroush   Date: 24 April 2014

Elections 2014 (14): Why two thirds of Andar’s polling centres may have never opened

Author: Fazal Rahman   Date: 23 April 2014

Elections 2014 (11): How the Hazaras voted in Bamyan

Author: Qayoom Suroush   Date: 16 April 2014

Elections 2014 (10): Paktia – where rain helped the ‘king making’ voters

Author: Pakteen Ibrahimi    Date: 14 April 2014

Elections 2014 (8): Kandahar, a centre-districts divide and the weakening of the tribal factor

Author: Borhan Osman    Date: 11 April 2014

Elections 2014 (6): Two types of security in the Shomali

Author: Fabrizio Foschini    Date: 7 April 2014

Elections 2014 (5): Inky Fingers and Wet Feet – Polling Day

Authors: Martine van Bijlert  and Kate Clark  Date: 5 April 2014

Elections 2014 (4): The election day in snapshots from the provinces

Author: AAN Team    Date: 5 April 2014

Election 2014 (3): Snapshots from the provinces before the vote

Author: AAN Team     Date: 5 April 2014

Elections 2014 (1): Impressions from Kunduz at the eve of the elections

Author: AAN Team    Date: 4 April 2014

Dividing the Field: Who shapes the electoral landscape in a Herat township – and how?

Author: S Reza Kazemi    Date: 17 March 2014

Money, Jobs and Mutton Soup: Pre-election discourses in a Herat township

Author: S Reza Kazemi    Date: 3 February 2014

 

6. Pre-election ‘explainers’

What to Watch in the Elections (1): Voter registration

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 1 April 2014

What to Watch in the Elections (2): Polling station lists

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 1 April 2014

What to Watch in the Elections (3): Polling day, fraud and irregularities

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 1 April 2014

What to Watch in the Elections (4): The count, the complaints and the result

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 1 April 2014

The final list of presidential and vice-presidential candidates

Author: Thomas Ruttig    Date: 9 February 2014

Under Fire: The status of the 2014 election observation

By: Thomas Ruttig, 5 April 2014

Election 2014 (2): The polling centres that were taken off the list

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 4 April 2014

What the Polls Tell Us About the Afghan Presidential Election

Author: Matthieu Aikins    Date: 31 March 2014

Not a Promising Start: The vetting of the presidential and provincial council candidates

Author: Kate Clark and Gran Hewad    Date: 22 December 2013

Afghan Youth for Democracy? Not all of them

Author: Borhan Osman    Date: 2 April 2014

Elections and Foreigners: An analysis of recent Taleban violence

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 3 April 2014

The Butter on the Bread: The Provincial Councils’ fight for extended authority

Author: Thomas Ruttig and Ehsan Qaane    Date: 23 March 2014

‘Pen’ Joins ‘Radio’: Qayyum Karzai gives his support to Zalmai Rassul

Author: Thomas Ruttig and Kate Clark    Date: 7 March 2014

A Joint ‘Durrani’ Candidate for President? After the Unity Jirga in Kabul

Author: Thomas Ruttig    Date: 5 March 2014

Bomb and Ballot: The many strands and tactics of Hezb-e Islami

Author: Thomas Ruttig    Date: 19 February 2014

Rallies, Debate, Rain and Snow: The 2014 presidential election campaign starts

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 2 February 2014

Candidates on Camera: Interviewing the next president of Afghanistan

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 12 December 2013

And Then They Were Ten: Preliminary final list of presidential candidates out

Author: Kate Clark    Date: 22 October 2013

A Leader Apologises: General Dostum, elections and war crimes

Author: Kate Clark  Date: 8 October 2013

The Last Minute Frenzy of Afghanistan’s Candidate Registration

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 6 October 2013

Dancing to Power: Getting an Afghan presidential ticket together

Author: Kate Clark and Gran Hewad    Date: 30 September 2013

First Reactions Negative: The new Electoral Complaints Commission

Author: Gran Hewad    Date: 18 September 2013

On Your Marks! Alliances and actors before the 2014 presidential election

Author: Thomas Ruttig    Date: 17 September 2013

A Hasty Process: New Independent Election Commission announced

Author: Gran Hewad, Martine van Bijlert and Thomas Ruttig    Date: 30 July 2013

Afghanistan’s New Electoral Laws: Changes and red flags

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 27 July 2013

 

See also four major AAN reports and a thematic dossier pulling together insight and information on previous elections

How to Win an Afghan Election, Perceptions and Practices

Martine van Bijlert, 11 August 2009

Polling Day Fraud in the Afghan Elections

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 8 September 2009

Who Controls the Vote? Afghanistan’s Evolving Elections

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 15 September 2010

Untangling Afghanistan’s 2010 Vote: Analysing the electoral data

Author: Martine van Bijlert    Date: 19 Febriary 2011

 

Thematic Dossier III: What Past Elections Teach Us

Pulled together reports and dispatches from previous elections

Author: Martine van Bijlert  Date: 5 October 2013

 

 

Tags:

Elections Dossier provincial council

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