Afghanistan Analysts Network – English

Reports

Reports – previously known as dispatches – are the flagship of the AAN website and our main type of publication. AAN reports are based on extensive desk and field research and provide timely and in-depth information and analysis.

Elections 2014 (38): Candidate positioning after the preliminary results

Martine van Bijlert •

A day after the announcement of the preliminary results, the US and the UN have sought to temper the shock and anger in the Abdullah camp, as well as the joy among Ghani’s supporters, by stressing that the results are not final. Both Abdullah and Ghani have sought public positions that could allow for a […]

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Civilian victims of a Taleban attack in Daulatabad, Faryab, June 2014. Will an investigation lead to justice for victims like these? Credit: Pajhwok Afghan news

“A Dangerous New Turn”: UNAMA reports a sharp rise in civilian casualties

Kate Clark •

For the first time since UNAMA started documenting civilian casualties in 2009, more civilians have been killed in ground fighting than from any other tactic. In its six monthly report on the protection of civilians, it reported “a direct correlation” in some areas between the closures of international bases and a rise in civilian casualties, […]

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Elections 2014 (36): Some key documents

AAN Team •

As an annex to AAN’s election reporting, please find below the text of two letters that the Abdullah camp sent to the Independent Election Commission (IEC) on 25 June 2014, as well as the IEC’s answer the next day (annex 1) and the transcript to some of the main recordings that have been released by […]

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Almost iftar: IEC announces the long-awaited and still disputed preliminary result of the Afghan presidential election 2014, Picture c/o Pajhwok Afghan News

Elections 2014 (37): Preliminary results before agreement on auditing

Kate Clark •

The Independent Elections Commission (IEC) has announced preliminary results for the presidential run-off, today, 7 July 2014. The ‘raw’ votes, (largely before fraud has been taken into account) give a turnout of almost 8 million, with Ashraf Ghani getting 56 per cent of the vote and Abdullah Abdullah 43 per cent. For the last few […]

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Elections 2014 (35): A delay, an audit and a change of tone

Kate Clark • Martine van Bijlert •

The Independent Electoral Commission’s delay of the preliminary results of the presidential run-off, from 2 to 7 July 2014, and its decision to audit almost 2000 polling stations that show possible signs of ballot stuffing, seems to have signalled a change in the electoral mood. Whereas days before the commission still showed signs of intending […]

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breakdance master class in Kabul

A Break(dance) from the Elections: The street hits the Kabul stage

payvand •

As election chaos and fraught discussions over Afghanistan’s future weary even the most passionate activist, there is a fringe of Afghans only minimally concerned with politics who spend their time… breakdancing? Not the most intuitive choice for young citizens of a country where many still frown on music and dance. Or perhaps it is the […]

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The released Taleban inmates greeted in Qatar - photo by nunn.asia website

The prospect of peace talks after the Bergdahl deal: A Taleban perspective

Borhan Osman •

Bowe Bergahl, now back in America, and the five Taleban ex-Guantanamo detainees, in Qatar, will all be trying to get used to life after detention. Beyond the personal, what political consequences might the deal have? After years of efforts, it was wrapped up unexpectedly fast and, in the end, was a stand-alone deal, not part […]

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Little Bridges: AAN’s new report on the slowly growing links between Afghanistan and the Central Asia republics

Christian Bleuer • S Reza Kazemi •

Reports about Afghanistan and its neighbours to the north usually lump the five former Soviet Central Asia republics together as an undifferentiated block  – ‘the Stans’. Such an approach does not reflect the reality of five countries with very different, mainly bilateral and very local relationships with Afghanistan. The distortion has only been worsened by […]

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Elections (34): The tug-of-war over the Hazara vote, round II

Qayoom Suroush •

How did the large Afghan Hazara minority – that surprised everyone in the first round with its nearly unanimous backing for Dr Abdullah – vote in the second round of the presidential elections? Partial results from the Independent Election Commission (IEC) are not yet available, but in one of the key provinces for Hazaras, Bamyan, […]

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Elections 2014 (33): ‘Amarkhel Gate’ – sheep, tape, resignation

Kate Clark •

The resignation of the head of the secretariat of the Independent Election Commission (IEC), Zia ul-Haq Amarkhel, may just have saved the election – if it brings Dr Abdullah back into the process. In support of his demand (one of several) for Amarkhel to go, Abdullah had ceased cooperating with the IEC and his supporters […]

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Elections 2014 (32): A second round surge in turnout in Loya Paktia?

Kate Clark • Pakteen Ibrahimi •

The three provinces of Loya Paktia – Paktia, Khost and Paktika – have seen some of the worst fraud in Afghanistan’s previous elections, particularly the mass proxy use of women’s ballots, so it was understandable that reports of a high turnout in the second round there would be met with suspicion. However, those on the […]

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Elections (31): Afghanistan’s confusing election maths

Thomas Ruttig •

Only hours after polling centres had closed on the evening of the second round of voting in the Afghan presidential election, the country’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) was already giving the first turnout figures. They were high. Some media broadcast them without question; other outlets were more sceptical, citing anecdotal evidence suggesting turnout might actually […]

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