Afghanistan Analysts Network – English

AAN in the Media

What are Afghanistan’s political scenarios as the Taliban makes new gains?

< 1 min

TRT World, 15 July 2021

AAN’s Obaid Ali is extensively quoted on possible Afghan scenarios in this report of the Turkish government broadcaster:

“The [most likely] scenario appears to be that possibly the Taliban will take over the government in Afghanistan because they are not ready to share power with the current government and also key political players,” says Obaid Ali, a political analyst at the Afghanistan Analysts Network.

“They [the Taliban] are very keen to take over the government and they have proven that they are capable enough to overrun most parts of the country from the past one month when we have seen the fall of many many districts into the Taliban,” Ali tells TRT World. 

As the Taliban overruns many districts, Afghan security forces have not shown “a solid resistance” to the armed group across the country, according to Ali. Because the Taliban takes over districts with its own power and influence, they will probably be less inclined to negotiate a political settlement with Kabul, he adds. (…)

While many Afghan and non-Afghan security analysts have suggested that central government forces will be able to put up a fight against the Taliban, there is no serious evidence so far.

“I am very much surprised when I see security forces surrendered to the Taliban,” Ali explains.