Jamestown Terrorism Monitor, 20 March 2015
Finally, a non-alarmist analysis of the IS threat emanating from Afghanistan to Central Asia, by Ryskeldi Satke, Casey Michel and Sertac Canalp Korkmaz, which also quotes AAN’s Thomas Ruttig:
At present, the threat from Islamist extremism in Central Asia appears significantly more modest than is painted by both regional governments and the Russian authorities. In addition, the Afghan Taliban seems disinclined to ally in any significant way with the Islamic State, which seems likely to limit the group’s influence there. Thomas Ruttig, co-director and senior analyst of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN), explained:
So far, there have been only fringe Afghan groups that have declared allegiance with the Islamic State. The battlefield is still controlled by the Taliban, who are not interested in competition there and have moved, in a number of incidents, against such groups. In this context, the danger of a destabilization of Central Asia by the Islamic State from Afghanistan is overstated in the current situation, even alarmist and very likely serves domestic agendas.
This article was last updated on 9 Mar 2020