Search results

Gulbuddin ante portas – again (2)

Veteran mujahedin and current no. 2 insurgent leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar gave a rare and extensive interview to German TV. AAN’s Senior Analyst Thomas Ruttig thinks that he was trying a walk on the tightrope, responding to the opened doors for ‘reconciliation’ while projecting that he is not too soft on the US and Kabul’s offers […]

6 Nov 2010 Thomas Ruttig • War and Peace

2010 Elections 31: Who will fix the election?

The ECC has forwarded the names of 413 candidates to the Attorney General’s Office, while the Attorney General’s Office has initiated investigations into both electoral bodies. As the various branches of government argue over how the process should have been done and who is to blame for the flaws, it is becoming increasingly clear that […]

6 Nov 2010 Martine van Bijlert • Political Landscape

2010 Elections 30: Loose ends and entanglements

As the basic data is still being released and clarified (or not), the IEC has found itself confronted with a series of awkward loose ends. This is being complicated by the rising pressure from candidates, the palace and, more recently, the Attorney General’s Office, as an increasing number of actors is being dragged into the […]

4 Nov 2010 Martine van Bijlert • Political Landscape

Another High Council, for ‘Our’ Youth

After the big success of the High Peace Council, the sequel follows suit: After a two-day ‘General Assembly’ in the Loya Jirga tent in Kabul, a National Youth High Council has been formed. Reading its final press release, it sounds as if it has been organized by the Afghan government itself. Is it now claiming […]

2 Nov 2010 Thomas Ruttig • Political Landscape

Splitting the Haqqanis with NATO Reconciliation Air?

The initial big wave of reports about talks with the Taleban gathering speed and of a possible short-term ‘reconciliation’ have given way for a slower but steady trickle of spicy detail. A detail dropped here, some names there, mixed with half-denials like Richard Holbrooke’s ‘There is less than meets the eye’ line keep the shurwa(*) […]

1 Nov 2010 Thomas Ruttig • War and Peace

Reconciliation in Afghanistan: Can the UN right some wrongs?

Our guest author Horia Mosadiq(*) looks at the United Nations’ role now and then in Afghanistan, with special attention to its numerous attempts to ‘peace deals relying largely on power-sharing’. She sees the latest initiatives for ‘reconciliation’ as a continuation of this approach and discusses its possible implications for justice, with its inherent differentiation of […]

31 Oct 2010 Horia Mosadiq • International Engagement

A Washington Diary: Partition Lite and a lot of hope

Less than two weeks to go to the US mid-term elections with the expected rout of Obama’s democrats, the war in Afghanistan is no issue at all in the campaign. The decision, says everyone here, is taken anyway: The US will pull out most of its troops, re-label the rest as trainers and advisers, keep […]

25 Oct 2010 Thomas Ruttig • War and Peace

2010 Elections 29: Losing legitimacy – Kandahar’s preliminary winners

There has been some very positive news coming out of Kandahar province lately, as the New York Times’ Carlotta Gall has reported(*). According to ISAF and Afghan government officials, the Taliban have been “routed” from the province by a massive military offensive, partly with the help of a miraculous rocket launcher, the HIMARS system, which, […]

25 Oct 2010 Matthieu Aikins • Political Landscape

2010 Elections 28: Sacrifing the vote for a semblance of control

Most international supporters had reached an early conclusion that whatever happened in the field, the IEC in Kabul did their job well – guarding the process and maintaining a level of independence and transparency. Candidates and voters strongly disagree and are venting suspicions of manipulation and foul play up to the highest level. The results […]

25 Oct 2010 Martine van Bijlert • Political Landscape

A Karzai-Taleban coalition won’t survive a few days

Former UN and EU Special Envoy to Afghanistan and the chairman of AAN’s advisory board Francesc Vendrell talked to the Voice of America about the much-reported contacts between the Afghan government and some elements of the Taliban on possible peace negotiations. Here some relatively expansive quotes from the 19 October article. Francesc Vendrell who is […]

23 Oct 2010 Francesc Vendrell • War and Peace

Talking to the Taleban: Who’s under pressure now?

The last US plan – to have a more broad-based reconciliation process only after its military would regain the upper hand on the battlefield – has not worked. The surge has not shifted the momentum. Not the Taleban but in reality the US are under pressure, and fundamental questions open about how and where a […]

22 Oct 2010 Anand Gopal • War and Peace

21 October 2010, Washington DC: Thomas Ruttig on Reconciliation

By invitation only at The New America Foundation: on-the-record breakfast discussion with Thomas Ruttig on the prospects for reconciliation with the Taliban and how this process might fit within the Afghan political, social, and cultural context.   Prospects for Reconciliation in Afghanistan Thursday, October 21, 2010 8:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m. The New America Foundation […]

21 Oct 2010 AAN • admin • Events

21 October 2010: New AAN paper on the Ex-Taleban on the High Peace Council

AAN’s latest discussion paper by Thomas Ruttig provides a first analysis of the former Taleban members on the newly-established Afghan High Peace Council (HPC), of what their possible role may be in this body, their political and historical background as well as the development of their positions vis-à-vis a possible process of negotiations. More information […]

21 Oct 2010 AAN • admin • Events

2010 Elections 27: And finally… the preliminary results

The 2010 preliminary results were announced on 20 October 2010, but as usual information, as well as an understanding of what that information means, is trickling in rather slowly. So far we have a series of figures provided by the IEC, but no answers on why they don’t match or add up; and an internet […]

21 Oct 2010 Martine van Bijlert • Political Landscape

Are Talks with the Taleban Snow-Balling?

There has been a lot of excitement lately in the press about the supposedly snow-balling talks with the Taleban leadership and what this could mean for the prospects to end the war. The major news outlets have been trying to outdo each other in terms of talking up details provided by spokespeople and unnamed officials. […]

20 Oct 2010 Martine van Bijlert • War and Peace

AAN Guest blog: Making Elections Count

Afghanistan’s elections have been spectacularly problematic. Only hours before the announcement of this year’s preliminary results, Professor William Maley explores the different ways in which electoral processes can be viewed – as theatre, a way to change power without bloodshed, or a means of renegotiating power relations. He discusses the corrosive impact of widspread fraud […]

20 Oct 2010 William Maley • Political Landscape

The Ex-Taleban on the High Peace Council: A renewed role for the Khuddam ul-Furqan?

AAN’s latest discussion paper by Thomas Ruttig provides a first analysis of the former Taleban members on the newly-established Afghan High Peace Council (HPC), of what their possible role may be in this body, their political and historical background as well as the development of their positions vis-à-vis a possible process of negotiations. An analysis […]

20 Oct 2010 Thomas Ruttig • Special Reports

Enclaves of Optimism

In the midst of years of downhill trends and mounting complexities and a growing realisation of how intertwined we have all become in Afghanistan’s main problems, you can still find enclaves of optimism – at military headquarters, diplomatic gatherings, UN leadership levels. They are inhabited by people with a stubborn, but seemingly authentic belief that […]

19 Oct 2010 Martine van Bijlert • International Engagement

18 October 2010: New report ‘Dangerous Liaisons’

This USIP Special Report report by independent Afghanistan analyst Matt Waldman is based on six months of field research between January and June 2010, funded by the U.S. Institute of Peace and Canadian Global Peace and Security Fund and facilitated and supported by the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN). The aim was to better understand insurgent […]

18 Oct 2010 AAN • admin • Events

Another Militia Creation Gone Wrong

In March 2010, heavy fighting broke out in the northern Baghlan province between Hezb-e Islami fighters and the Taleban. On 7 October 2010, a German soldier was killed by a suicide bomber in the same area. The connection between both events is another example how the establishment of ‘militias’ (even though they are not called […]

18 Oct 2010 Thomas Ruttig • War and Peace