Afghanistan Analysts Network – English

Month: October 2009

AAN Election Blog No. 38: I think we should be worried now

Martine van Bijlert •

It is eleven days since President Karzai, flanked by a posse of international envoys and ambassadors, announced the date of the second round of the 2009 elections. Since then the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and UNDP ELECT have pushed ahead with the logistical preparations, releasing election material to the far corners of the country and […]

Political Landscape Read more

The Guesthouse Attack and the Run-Off

Thomas Ruttig •

This time it looks as if the Taleban really have managed to give the Afghan election – more precisely: its second round set for 7 November – its own turn. They already considerably influenced the first round of 20 August when they threatened attacks like cutting of inked fingers of voters but largely left polling […]

International Engagement Read more

Afghanistans Wahlkrise (Afghanistan’s Election Crisis)

Thomas Ruttig •

Thomas Ruttig. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, SWP-Aktuell 2009/A 56 In this 8-page SWP comment, the author analyses the ‘legitimacy crisis’ that erupted after the manipulated 20 August elections, assesses that it contributes to minimise the chance that Gen. McChrystal’s population-oriented counter-insurgency approach can be implemented and lays out steps to broaden the Afghan political process […]

External publications Read more

The Predator War

admin •

The New Yorker, 26 October 2009 Jane Mayer’s hair-raising account of the risks of ‘the “push-button” approach to fighting Al Qaeda’. She gives the figures of people killed during the 41 drone strikes since President Obama’s inauguration (between 326 and 538, ‘many bystanders’), explores the psyche of those remote-operating the drones and the role of […]

Recommended Reads Read more

3-4 November: Afghanistan experts meeting in Bavaria

AAN • admin •

Thomas Ruttig represented AAN at a two-day experts meeting organized by German Hanns Seidl Foundation in the Bavarian spa of Wildbad Kreuth on 3-4 November, titled “The Interlocking Security Dilemma of Pakistan and Afghanistan”. Thomas gave a presentation on the question: ‘Are there moderate Taleban and what does this mean for the future political development’ […]

Events Read more

23 Oct.: SWP Comment by Thomas Ruttig on the Afghan elections crisis published.

AAN • admin •

Afghanistans Wahlkrise: Die gefälschte Präsidentschaftswahl und Strategien für »danach« (Afghanistan’s Election Crisis: The fraudulent presidential elections and strategies for ‚thereafter‘), Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (Berlin), SWP-Aktuell 2009/A 56, October 2009, 8 pp. In this SWP comment (in German), AAN’s Thomas Ruttig analyses the ‘legitimacy crisis’ that erupted after the manipulated 20 August presidential election, assesses […]

Events Read more

What about the voters (2)

Martine van Bijlert •

What do people think? Now that a million votes have been disqualified and the second round has been announced. Another collection of conversation fragments. “I am worried that something will go wrong with the elections. Many people are worried. So Karzai’s acceptance of the results is good. He has decided to avoid confrontation. It is […]

Political Landscape Read more

AAN Election Blog 37: The next chapter of the conclusion (2)

Martine van Bijlert •

So Karzai announced. His desire to have a second round, so that the bad taste of the first one could be washed away. His pride over being one of the two candidates running in that second round. His appreciation for the Afghan nation and how they participated in the election. His gratitude to the internationals […]

Political Landscape Read more

AAN Election Blog 36: The next chapter of the conclusion

Martine van Bijlert •

The ECC has released its decisions and in doing so has laid to rest the doubts or speculations that they may bend under pressure to fudge or withhold. A scroll through the well documented findings confirms the widespread reports of fraud and provides a fascinating read of what the elections must have looked like in […]

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What about the voters

Martine van Bijlert •

What about the voters (and the non-voters). Maybe we should listen to them as well. A small collection of random conversation fragments. “Before the election I called the IEC representative in my area and asked him to arrange votes for [the presidential candidate I was supporting]. He asked me to whom in the provincial council […]

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AAN Election Blog 35: The fog of an election result

Martine van Bijlert •

Since the results of the ECC investigation have become roughly and widely known (47-48% for Karzai) the “process” has disintegrated into a large number of scattered negotiations and confidential meetings of which the status is unclear. So everybody is phoning each other, swapping the fragments of what they have been told by so and so […]

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AAN Election Blog 34: Rumours of a Run-off

Martine van Bijlert •

The Afghan electoral process has gone into yet another phase. The audit results were passed onto the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) a week ago. They have been endlessly mulling on how to calculate the number of polling stations that are to be annulled and are expected to hand over their conclusions to the Independent Electoral […]

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