Afghanistan Analysts Network – English

Reports

  • Children in an IDP camp in Dand district, Kandahar province. Thousands of people fled their homes after Taleban offensives in Helmand and Kandahar provinces in October and November 2020, and ANSF counter-offensives. Photo: Javed Tanveer/AFP, 7 January 2021.

    Kate Clark 1 May 2021

    As US troops withdraw, what next for war and peace in Afghanistan?

    The United States’ decision to withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan unconditionally, and the apparent dead end of its efforts to broker peace in Afghanistan, will have profound ramifications for the conflict. The likely outcomes can already be seen, including, ominously, in how civilian casualties are back up to their 2019 levels. Scrutinising the patterns […]

  • Kate Clark 19 Apr 2021

    American politics grounded in fear, ignorance and fantasy: New special report on Afghans in Guantanamo, as US prepares to withdraw troops

    President Joe Biden has announced that American troops will leave Afghanistan before 11 September 2021, a day that will mark twenty years since al-Qaeda attacked the United States and drew US forces to Afghanistan. Another anniversary is also looming: it will soon be twenty years since President George Bush opened the Guantanamo Bay detention camp […]

  • Kate Clark 15 Apr 2021

    Disbanding the ALP – An Update: Major transition of security forces achieved during wartime, but at a cost

    It is now six months since funding for Afghanistan’s oldest and largest community defence force, the Afghan Local Police (ALP) ended, and three months since the force should have been wound up. The early stages of the disbandment went badly, as we reported in October. The government was late in making preparations and failed to […]

  • Helmand peace marchers in front of the Russian embassy. Photo: People's Peace Movement/2018

    Thomas Ruttig 2 Apr 2021

    A Troika of Four: Looking back at the March 2021 Afghanistan meeting in Moscow

    The ‘extended troika’ meeting in Moscow on 18 March did not spark a significant new impulse in the search for peace in Afghanistan. Instead, it followed a well-known pattern. Foreign powers offered platitudes about an ‘Afghan-led, Afghan-owned’ peace process, again, while they insist on setting the timeline themselves and handpick those who are to be […]

  • Thomas Ruttig 1 Apr 2021

    Conditions-based Interim Government: President Ghani presents a preview of his peace plan

    President Ashraf Ghani has raised the curtain on his peace plan and agreed to the formation of an interim government in Afghanistan. Ghani summarised his plan in a speech at the 9th Ministerial Conference of the Heart of Asia/Istanbul Process – a gathering of regional and other states on security and cooperation in Central Asia […]

  • Ali Yawar Adili Rohullah Sorush Sayed Asadullah Sadat 31 Mar 2021

    The Stagnation of Afghanistan’s State Institutions: Case studies of the Supreme Court, Senate, provincial councils and the constitutional oversight commission

    This report looks at the legal framework, status and trajectory of four important state institutions, both elected and appointed: the Supreme Court, Senate, provincial councils and the Independent Commission for Overseeing the Implementation of the Constitution (ICOIC). According to the Afghan constitution, these institutions should play significant roles in providing checks and balances, accountability, representation […]

  • Rachel Reid 24 Mar 2021

    Afghanistan 1400: The dawn and decline of a political movement

    Ten years ago, a group of bright young Afghan professionals formed Harakat-e-Afghanistan 1400 (Afghanistan 1400 Movement), aiming to break the mould of Afghan politics. With the new century of the Afghan calendar year 1400 (2021) as their horizon, they wanted to establish a political entity that – unlike existing Afghan political parties – was not based […]

This war will end, some day. But for an inch of gain in the political equation, lives are being taken, livelihood dismantled - over and over and over.

In places like Lashkar Gah, Kunduz City, Maimana -- the routine is so frequent, so cruel, so traumatic. Over and over, so often. https://twitter.com/HabibKhanT/status/1389453881793466373

🇦🇫#Afghanistan: President Biden announced the progressive withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. Now the country has to face its future.

➡️We ask @thruttig , Co-director of @AANafgh, to shed light on the Afghan situation.
https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/afghanistan-after-us-withdrawal-elusive-peace

Thanks, Diaa
Report here: https://aan.af/2QJJ45k

Taliban will push to capture territory and provincial capitals, but there's every sign they underestimate the Afghan security forces who will resist. Consequence: "immense suffering to countless Afghans."

Excellent read from @KateClark66 and @AANafgh:

https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war-and-peace/as-us-troops-withdraw-what-next-for-war-and-peace-in-afghanistan/

“The US is leaving Afghanistan after 20 years, with a negotiated end to the war looking the least likely scenario. More probable is that the Taleban will, sooner or later, move to try to capture territory and attack Afghanistan’s provincial capitals.” https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/as-us-troops-withdraw-what-next-for-war-and-peace-in-afghanistan/

Useful thread👇concluding:
Evidence insufficient to say what year's fighting season might look like, at least until after foreign troop withdrawal. Notable that several possibilities seem possible.
Civilian harm is/will remain grossly high.
(And thanks for @AANAfgh mention.) https://twitter.com/and_huh_what/status/1388613282353893377

" the Question now is whether the Republic of Afghanistan Kabul government political class is capable of the change needed, as international troops withdraw and international support diminishes."
@AANafgh https://twitter.com/brenda11831/status/1388827274967924741

@AANafgh new report about, As US troops withdraw, what next for war and peace in Afghanistan? detailed analysis by @KateClark66
.https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/as-us-troops-withdraw-what-next-for-war-and-peace-in-afghanistan/

Excellent, comprehensive ⁦@AANafgh⁩ analyis: The US leaving #Afghanistan after 20 years with a negotiated end to the war is "the least likely scenario. More probable is that the Taleban will...try to capture territory and attack provincial capitals" https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/as-us-troops-withdraw-what-next-for-war-and-peace-in-afghanistan/

#Afghanistan #AfghanPeaceProcess #future after #withdrawal of the troops:👇 https://twitter.com/AANafgh/status/1388372731981348864

Load More...

Publications

Children in an IDP camp in Dand district, Kandahar province. Thousands of people fled their homes after Taleban offensives in Helmand and Kandahar provinces in October and November 2020, and ANSF counter-offensives. Photo: Javed Tanveer/AFP, 7 January 2021.

As US troops withdraw, what next for war and peace in Afghanistan?

Kate Clark

The United States’ decision to withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan unconditionally, and the apparent dead end of its efforts to broker peace in Afghanistan, will have profound ramifications for the conflict. The likely outcomes can already be seen, including, ominously, in how civilian casualties are back up to their 2019 levels. Scrutinising the patterns […]

Reports Read more

American politics grounded in fear, ignorance and fantasy: New special report on Afghans in Guantanamo, as US prepares to withdraw troops

Kate Clark

President Joe Biden has announced that American troops will leave Afghanistan before 11 September 2021, a day that will mark twenty years since al-Qaeda attacked the United States and drew US forces to Afghanistan. Another anniversary is also looming: it will soon be twenty years since President George Bush opened the Guantanamo Bay detention camp […]

Reports Read more

Disbanding the ALP – An Update: Major transition of security forces achieved during wartime, but at a cost

Kate Clark

It is now six months since funding for Afghanistan’s oldest and largest community defence force, the Afghan Local Police (ALP) ended, and three months since the force should have been wound up. The early stages of the disbandment went badly, as we reported in October. The government was late in making preparations and failed to […]

Reports Read more
Helmand peace marchers in front of the Russian embassy. Photo: People's Peace Movement/2018

A Troika of Four: Looking back at the March 2021 Afghanistan meeting in Moscow

Thomas Ruttig

The ‘extended troika’ meeting in Moscow on 18 March did not spark a significant new impulse in the search for peace in Afghanistan. Instead, it followed a well-known pattern. Foreign powers offered platitudes about an ‘Afghan-led, Afghan-owned’ peace process, again, while they insist on setting the timeline themselves and handpick those who are to be […]

Reports Read more

New Special Report from AAN: “Kafka in Cuba, a Follow-Up Report: Afghans Still in Detention Limbo as Biden Decides What to do with Guantanamo”

Kate Clark

As newly-elected United States President Joe Biden considers what to do with the almost two-decades-old ‘war on terror’ detention facility at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, we publish a special report on the last Afghans held there. Two Nangraharis, Asadullah Harun Gul and Mohammad Rahim, have both been detained since 2007. We also trace the fates […]

Special Reports Read more

New special report on Afghanistan’s newest local defence force: Were “all the mistakes of the ALP” turned into ANA-TF safeguards?

Kate Clark

Today, AAN publishes a special report looking at Afghanistan’s newest local defence force, the Afghan National Army Territorial Force (ANA-TF). Set up by presidential decree in February 2018 and funded and supported by NATO’s United States-led Resolute Support mission, it was intended to be a lightly-armed, low-cost, local arm of the ANA which could hold […]

Special Reports Read more

New special report: ‘Ghosts of the Past: Lessons from Local Force Mobilisation in Afghanistan and Prospects for the Future’

Kate Clark

A major new special report, ‘Ghosts of the Past: Lessons from Local Force Mobilisation in Afghanistan and Prospects for the Future’ looks at what is likely to make a local defence force – such as the Afghan Local Police (ALP) or Afghan National Army Territorial Force (ANA-TF) successful. This research sought to understand what makes some […]

Special Reports Read more

The Cost of Support to Afghanistan: New special report considers the reasons for inequality, poverty and a failing democracy

Kate Clark

In a new AAN special report, Kate Clark considers the apparent paradox that despite almost two decades of international support to Afghanistan, poverty for most Afghans has deepened. She also explores the gap between the promise of the 2002 Bonn Agreement and 2004 constitution, a multi-ethnic, fully representative government, a democracy with strong checks and […]

Special Reports Read more
With intermittent fighting and rocket attacks throughout the day, election workers in the Awal Baba school voting centre in Maidan Shahr, had little work to do. Photo: Andrew Quilty, 2019.

Thematic Dossier XXVII: Afghanistan’s contested 2019 presidential election and its aftermath

AAN Team

A year on from Afghanistan’s fourth presidential poll since the fall of the Taleban regime, AAN is publishing all our reporting on the election and its aftermath in a new dossier. Our 37 AAN reports comprise coverage of the run-up to the election; on-the-day reporting; analysis of the controversies over counting, verifying and announcing the result, including our […]

Dossiers Read more

Thematic Dossier XXVI: Big Tent ‘Democracy’ – Afghanistan’s loya jirgas, 1915 to 2020

AAN Team

The loya jirga – or grand assembly – has been used as a political instrument by almost every Afghan king and president for the last century, with the first held arguably in 1915 and the last, for now, in August 2020. These jirgas typically bring together hundreds, sometimes thousands of delegates from the various ethnic […]

Dossiers Read more

AAN Dossier XXV: The Quest for Peace in Afghanistan, 2015 to 2020

AAN Team

Any day now, a first diplomatic breakthrough toward peace in Afghanistan is expected: the United States and the Taleban have both announced that they have finalised their negotiations which would exchange withdrawal of the US and other NATO troops from the country for anti-terrorism guarantees from the Taleban. These negotiations started in October 2018 in […]

Dossiers Read more

Thematic Dossier XXIV: Ten years of reporting on civilian casualties, still no ceasefire

AAN Team

As the Taleban and the United States sit down together again to discuss the possibility of a peace agreement, the issue that appears to be most pressing for Afghans is a ceasefire. Not surprising given that 2019 is likely to be the sixth year in a row when the number of civilians killed and injured […]

Dossiers Read more

Have the Taliban Changed?

Thomas Ruttig

CTC Sentinel, March 2021 This is a guest article by AAN’s Thomas Ruttig for the March 2021 issue of the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC’s) monthly Sentinel, at the Department of Social Sciences of the US’s West Point military academy. It is based on Thomas’s experience from working with the UN during and after the Taleban’s rule […]

Other Publications Read more

Afghanistan’s Divided Republican “Front”

Thomas Ruttig Ali Yawar Adili

ISPI online, 26 January 2021 AAN’s Thomas Ruttig and Ali Yawar Adili have co-authored an article for an Afghanistan dossier published on the website of the Italian Institute for the Study of International Politics (ISPI), dealing with the composition of the ‘Islamic Republic of Afghanistan team’ at the intra-Afghan negotiations with the Taleban that started […]

Other Publications Read more

Konfliktporträt Afghanistan

Thomas Ruttig

Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, 29 September 2020 AAN’s Thomas Ruttig has been writing a ‘conflict portrait’ of Afghanistan for the website of the German Federal Centre for Political Education (Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, bpb) for several years now. the bpb is a major source for teachers and school students. Here is the latest version, update […]

Other Publications Read more

AAN Co-authorship: Article on families during conflict in Central Asia

AAN Team

Acta Via Serica, 1 June 2020 AAN researcher Reza Kazemi has co-authored the article “Family Matters: The Making and Remaking of Family during Conflict Periods in Central Asia” for the peer reviewed journal ” in the June 2020 issue of Acta Via Serica: Journal for Silk Road and Central Asian Studies, published by Keimyung University […]

Other Publications Read more

AAN in the Media

Recommended Reads